Ukraine: Military Coup Inevitable


Strategic Culture
by Dmitry MININ

The process aimed at finding peaceful settlement of Ukraine’s crisis is re-launched. Now the question pops up – who should sign a corresponding agreement on the part of Ukraine? A year has passed since the Ukraine’s government was forcibly removed. Experts strongly believe that a military coup is inevitable. It’s a matter of time, driving forces and scenarios. Ukrainian commentators see Putin behind everything that is happening there and call «Russian (Moskali) agents» those who take up arms to defend their rights and put forward their demands. Some more reasonable experts believe that the regime gave birth to its own undertakers by taking reckless and irresponsible steps. February 20 – the date of the coup could be the beginning of the «third Maidan revolution». Ukrainian media outlets write that serious mistakes take place as the war is being waged. The Poroshenko’s team is unprofessional. The banking system is destroyed by speculative currency rate games and skyrocketing inflation cannot be stopped because state bureaucrats see themselves as timeservers. The relationship between President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is shadowed. The risk is great and the clock is ticking marking days left before it starts. 

The motley crew to include National Guard voluntary formations, territorial defense units or the All-Ukraine Battalion Brotherhood is going to play the role of the Praetorian Guard. They have shown no combat prowess but acquired the reputation of being merciless. They are called «punishers» or «national scumbags». With no victories achieved on the battlefield they always raise ballyhoo about being betrayed. And there is some justification for saying so. The regime purposely selected Maidan activists to men the battalions. Sent to frontline they happen to be right in the heat of fighting. The regime hardly wants them to come back alive. The battalion commanders are made members of parliament to recognize their merits. It’s an extraordinary case in history. Nobody before has made unit commanders members of parliament. How can they fight? The main thing is that as politicians they are doomed to put the blame for their own mistakes on the powers that be. It’s politics as usual. The temptation to use private armies to prove one’s point is also great. The «brothers-in-arms» always have the same reason for protests – «Kiev is permeated by treason». Besides, many «scumbags» have tycoons behind their backs. For instance, Kolomoisky, a Ukrainian business oligarch of Jewish descent and the current governor of Dnipropetrovsk region, has a score to settle with Poroshenko. Victor Blagoda, the master of Transcarpathia, said he would react toughly in case the elements of Mukachevo-based 128th Guards Mountain Rifle Division will not break out of encirclement. According to him, the soldiers die because the President and the military command don’t do anything to help them. The first attempt took place in late January-early February. The decision was taken to disband Aidar, a territorial defense battalion of Ukraine, a volunteer military detachment of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. The decision was cancelled. Kiev even promised to enhance the rebelled battalion’s combat capability. It’s a warning. The protesters’ demands included the introduction of martial law, the dismissal of Minister of Defense, heads of National Security and Defense Council, General Staff and Prosecutor’s Office, an audit of Ministry of Defense, the inclusion of «anti-terrorist operation» vets into the composition of OSCE mission and guaranteeing them the right to take part in the organization’s meetings. They wanted the parliament (Verkhovna Rada) to impeach the President. Sergey Melnichyuk, an MP from Radical Part, the founder and the first commander of Aidar, told at the meeting that Ukrainian forces shelled the Aidar positions near Schastye 15-20 times using Grad and Smerch multiple launch rocket systems. In his interview to 112 Ukraine TV channel he told that the Ukraine’s General Staff wanted to leave the populated area to the self-defense units. It offered $20 million to Aidar soldiers to leave the area. 

Azov battalion commander Andriy Belitsky, a die-hard Neo-Nazi and a member of parliament, threatens to take his fighters to the streets. Dmitry Yarosh, an MP and the leader of organization Pravy Sector, was taken to the Dnipropetrovsk hospital after being wounded. There he announced the establishment of a «parallel general staff» to coordinate the activities of volunteer units. According to him, there are around 40 volunteer battalions at the front. 

The Battalion Brotherhood is not unanimous, there are serious differences inside its ranks. For instance, the Kulchitsky and Donbass battalions clashed near Uglegorsk. Semen Semenchenko, the Donbass commander, was wounded. Andriy Parubiy, Vice Speaker of parliament, former Maidan commandant and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, is on the list of candidates to become coup leaders. He was the target of failed assassination attempt by the end of last year. The traces led to the State Security Administration headed by loyal associate of President Valeriy Heletey. Perhaps Poroshenko will be held responsible for the action. 

The government takes urgent steps to prevent a regime change. No matter the decision is obviously late, the presidential administration plans to create a 25 thousand strong military police force to turn it into the pillar of Poroshenko’s regime. 

Fortifications are built in the capital. According to the head of the Kyiv police, Alexander Tereshchuk, eight block posts (actually fortified positions) protected from bullets, grenades and other projectiles are going to be erected at the entrances to the city. Snipers will be sent to garrisons. Protection of bridges will be enhanced with police patrols. Metal detectors are to be installed at subway entrances. The civil defense system under the operational staff led by the head of City Council has been moved to higher state of readiness. The Ukraine’s Security Service under Valentin Nalivaichenko has joined the fight against plotters in the usual irrational manner. The Security Service said the organization All-Ukrainian Battalion Brotherhood is funded and guided by…Russian special services, no matter it calls for war against Russia. Public was shown an arms cache found near Kiev with «huge stockpiles of weapons and explosives» prepared for a coup. Probably, it was the Security Service itself to put them there because the national guards have more than enough of arms and ammunition. Viacheslav Fursa, the head of All-Ukrainian Battalion Brotherhood, is called provocateur acting in the interests of Russia. Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Mykhailo Chornobai of General Staff has been arrested. They say he is a «Russian agent» who was the central figure of the plot. Besides, he happened to be guilty for all the setbacks suffered lately by Ukrainian forces. According to Nalivaichenko, Mykhailo Chornobai was responsible for information leakage to Life News and other Russian channels. He allegedly told them about «preparations for provocations» to take place in the area of «anti-terrorist operation» to enable journalists get there first. CIA-trained Nalivaichenko does not realize that the accusations confirm the involvement of the service he heads. No reasonable Ukrainian takes the Security Service seriously now. 

With the chaos reigning in Kiev the measures taken will probably not be enough. The adoption of new peace plan for Ukraine may be used as a signal. As soon as the first guidelines became known the «Maidan community» called it a national treason. The plotters taking power is a scenario unacceptable for Luhansk and Donetsk peoples’ republics as well as the larger part of Ukraine. Europe would be in a predicament dealing with outright Nazi. The plotters’ power will not be effective. It’s clear for everyone with rational thinking. But Ukraine is hit by the wave of irrationality. That’s why a new coup seems to be inevitable. 

But it won’t be the end. Such odious degenerates cannot hold the power for a long time. The next move will be done by regular military as the only force to calm down a crowd set out to destroy the state. Many regular servicemen have been in prison and could see with their own eyes those they had to fight. They may be the right people for serious discussions on the future of Ukraine and fair reforms needed to benefit the all the people of Ukraine. 

Strategic Culture

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