by Vladimir NESTEROV
The one superpower dominated world is becoming a thing of the past right in front of our eyes. Old international institutions are in decline, take the World Trade Organization (WTO), the European Union (EU) mired in crisis, or the degrading Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). So far, intense discussions of United Nations Organization reform have been nothing but shooting the breeze.
The United States has already seen its heyday. It is still going strong with its military, economic and political potential but there are other states breathing down its neck. China has surpassed the US in terms of GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP). The cooperation among BRICS members is on the rise. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is expanding with India and Pakistan on the way to membership. Greece, the homeland of democracy, has become the weakest link of the European Union. This fact serves to emphasize the degeneration of the Western democracies with their same-sex marriages and shaky foundations the national states are built on.
The United States starts to look more like a World War II battle ship with a large hole in the hull below the waterline. The damage is not visible, the ship continues to move with it formidable guns aimed at the enemy. But as time goes by the battle ship is losing speed and starts to go down. The melting pot that was so much spoken of during the days of Bill Clinton’s tenure is not that effective anymore, the United States has failed to become a united nation and the time approaches when the Anglo-Saxons don’t have to shoulder the “White Man’s burden» anymore with Latinos taking over as the dominant group. When it happens, the United States will become a different country with different culture and, perhaps, different goals to pursue.
Today the United States is retreating to leave behind hotbeds of tension and unfinished wars. The armed conflict in Ukraine, the never ending war in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq in ruins – that’s what the retreat results in. To slow down the process of degradation the United States is applying efforts to create the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) bringing together the golden bullion states as part of financial International. But this the time when “new right» and “new left» in Europe are gaining strength to insert significant changes into the plans of Washington and the financial International mentioned above. They can either try to create a new system to unite nations, or go back to the idea of common security space from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
The United States is considering the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership as a project aimed at cutting Europe off from Russia and pushing the Russian Federation deeper into Asia. The US shies away from using the term Cold War in regard to the current psychological and informational stand-off but, actually, it is waging such a war on all fronts. This affirmation is confirmed by increasing the strength and capacity of the NATO Response Force, returning US Army units to Europe, stationing forces in the countries which share borders with the Russian Federation, deploying missile defense elements in Europe, and launching debates to review the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said in early June that the United Kingdom could site American new nuclear missiles on British soil amid heightened tensions with Russia.
There is no end in sight to the smouldering conflict in Ukraine. No matter all the attempts to restore peace (the Normandy Four, the mission of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) there is a danger of sparking a big war with the United States stepping in one more time as a “European savior». At the same time NATO forces would be deployed along the Russian border from the Baltics to the Black Sea. This scenario is still imminent. If the United States says “yes» to Ukraine joining NATO the situation will inevitably exacerbate further.
Europe’s freedom of action is limited by Atlantic doctrine, but the possibility of war with Russia is very scary, that’s why the United States doesn’t dare to pull the trigger so far. The recent trip of US State Secretary John Kerry to Sochi testifies to the fact that Washington is not ready for uncontrolled escalation of the conflict. It’s clear for all that anti-Russian sanctions run contrary to the European interests. Europe would be happy to lift the sanctions but it has to save face. The best way to do it is to reduce tensions in the Donbass. But it makes imperative the government change in Kiev.
It all emphasizes the importance of cooperation within the framework of non-Western interstate associations: such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia and China have a special role to play. The further progress of integration may lead to the emergence of Great Eurasia with large enclaves in Latin America and South Africa. It would create an alternative to Euro-Atlantic domination. This May Russia and China agreed to integrate the Eurasian Economic Union with the «Silk Road» economic project. This and the success of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS summits taking place at the same place at the same time in Ufa are the events that greatly contribute to the process.