By Bernie Suarez
We know the saying, you either see a glass half empty or half full. Your attitude, mindset and expectations guide your perceptions which in turn will guide your stated views and opinions of the world you live in. That said, depending on how you view the world one might make an argument for why the new world order is slowly dying out.
Perhaps I’m being overly optimistic or perhaps my intuition is correct on this one. One thing I strongly believe: humanity is not designed to live in false government paradigms of slavery and statism. Those who live for government and the state will hold these beliefs, but nature and the rest of humanity tells another story. Humanity naturally yearns to be free of all control systems. Though a certain percentage of humanity actually needs and wants to be under the control of government, this segment of humanity only wishes this because they know nothing else and they are afraid of a stateless world where they might have to care for themselves. For now, let’s set aside these individuals who live in fear and need the state to be part of their lives, and let’s focus instead on the rest of humanity who is awakened. Let’s realize how amazing, gifted and how blessed we are as humans, and how natural it is to be free.
For those of us who have moved past the modern-day mental enslavement at the hands of the control system, it is much easier to see the victories being chalked up by humanity with every day that goes by. For those of us who are committed to viewing the world in a positive way, it is not very difficult to glance at some of the recent headlines and see where once again there are signs that show that new world order globalist elite plan at global enslavement may be postponed indefinitely. That is,
Here are just 10 recent stories that indicate the new world order could in fact be slowly dying out. These 10 stories barely scratch the surface of things that are happening at the local level everywhere in the U.S. and around the world. People really are beginning to realize that the wealthy elites and governments are the root of the problem. People are realizing how corrupt they are and how they intend to enslave us all forever. Many people are starting to see the bigger picture and this is driving a new consciousness.
1 – Baltimore cops criminally charged
Not long ago in America we saw multiple cases where police murdered unarmed civilians. From Michael Brown to Eric Garner, for months we’ve seen injustice as police literally get away with cold-blooded murder. For a change, however, we are now seeing multiple police officers profiled before America as ordinary criminals. Finally we are building the courage here in the U.S. to confront police homicide. We are finally willing to see a person for what they are without a badge distorting your perception of the truth.
Slowly the paradigm shift of judging police for their actions is headed in the direction of becoming the norm. Yes we have a long way to go, but we are headed in the right direction.
2 – Montana passes law to nullify militarization of police
In Montana, Governor Steve Bullock signed a law essentially protecting the state of Montana from becoming an arm of the federal government and being given military equipment. House bill 330 protects the independence of Montana’s law enforcement. How big a paradigm shift is this? This is a direct result of humanity waking up to the police state which is a big part of the new world order plans.
A law like this would never have been considered were it not for the expanding and noticeable militarized police state. Americans everywhere are now seeing the end result of a violent police state which attacks with immunity. People everywhere are sick and tired of the videos and images showing police in military gear, tanks, and unnecessary weapons. These images imprint in our minds and eventually carry over to action.
3 – Jade Helm canceled in parts of Colorado and Texas after strong opposition
Bad enough that operation Jade Helm is occurring right here in the U.S. starting this July. The good news is that in a short period of time the military operation has received so much attention that already we’re seeing cancelations in certain parts of Texas and Colorado. If there is any silver lining it is that when enough people speak out someone will listen.
4 – Not enough votes in Congress to reauthorize Patriot Act
Will the Patriot Act actually go away? Who knows, but even if it doesn’t go away now, think of how many more people are now aware that perhaps it’s time to say goodbye to the Patriot Act. Only time will tell what eventually happens with the Patriot Act. According to Michigan Congressman Justin Amash there are not enough votes. It is not difficult to see that the longstanding pushback against the Patriot Act is definitely there and may be finally coming to fruition.
Should the Patriot Act finally go away, it would be a huge blow to the new world order plans. For that reason we should expect strong opposition to the idea of not renewing the Act.
5 – Polls show young Americans are skeptical of Global Warming
Even in 2015, the year of the planned return of the “global warming” hoax theme disguised under the “climate change” banner, it may appear the young generation is not fooled by the global elite climate religion agenda concocted in the late 1950s and initiated in the 1960s by the Club of Rome. Despite that the climate change movement is in full gear this year, people are holding on to their common sense, critical thinking and rational thought and have not fallen for the agenda. Anyone can clearly see that the Climate Change hoax completely ignores the greatest threat to the planet and that is the planned, documented and carried out geoengineering spaying of our planet. As humanity watches in horror as our blue skies and fluffy white clouds turn to nasty feathery linear tic-tac-toe skies, the climate change hoaxer watches in a silence of betrayal, not willing to say a word to expose the 150 patents the Department of Defense has for spraying our skies. That youngsters are on to some of this and/or are not buying the global warming lie is another sign that we are headed in the right direction in terms of overall human consciousness and awakening, thus bad news for the new world order.
6 – Chipotle Mexican Grill becomes first fast food restaurant to reject GMOs.
A clear blow to the new world order and Monsanto, a company very much at the core of most genetic engineering of food. Chipotle Mexican Grill is now the first of many other fast food chains who will hopefully do the same. Soon we hope to see a trend of other restaurant chains dropping GMOs all together. I expect that consumer demand may play a role in making Genetically Modified Organism food obsolete. As time goes by more and more people are finding out about the dangers of GMOs. People are now becoming familiar with the Seralini studies which proved the cancer-causing risk of GMO foods. Soon, many millions more will start to think about GMOs as a result of this decision by Chipotle. Another example of how Monsanto and the new world order may be losing its tight grip on humanity.
7 – 30,000 doctors in Argentina demand ban of Monsanto’s glyphosate
As with the Chipotle story, that 30,000-plus doctors are willing to get together to try and make a difference in their country is remarkable and could present another death blow to Monsanto who makes glyphosate. Let’s not forget that every victory to ban GMOs is a huge victory against the new world order. Hopefully in the coming years we will see more action like this taken by other countries.
8 – TPP opposition growing. Obama increasingly frustrated
Obama’s super secret Trans Pacific Partnership agreement is struggling. People are quickly deducing that secret = bad. No good plan is held in secret from the public and nothing good could even come out of a plan that undermines individual sovereignty globally. We can expect opposition to the TPP to only grow. Now is the time to get familiar with TPP and all that is happening surrounding this weird international secret trade agreement. The TPP is also integral to the new world order plans, therefore let us keep fighting to expose this.
9 – Obama’s own brother says Barack is a ruthless, cold, deceitful liar
This story may seem like an odd one to include here but is it really? Foreign born Barry Soetoro, aka Barack Obama, has been exposed as a fraud since before he was elected in 2008 when many things about his past first came out. So why is this story important? And how is this a sign that the new world order could be crumbling? Because throughout history brothers of the sitting president don’t usually come out and boldly tell the world their own brother is a liar, and a ruthless person. Unfortunately, the magnitude of this story is actually distorted by today’s controlled mainstream media; but keep in mind, at any other time in American history this may be the top story in the nation or top story of the year. But in a nation deeply tangled in a cesspool of lies, deceit and propaganda, many Obama supporters see this headline and think nothing of it.
10 – CIA/CNN puts out major ISIS psyop report, no one cares!
I covered some of this in my April 2015 report exposing a CNN report by Evan Perez who apparently delivers an entirely false and unreliable/unbelievable ISIS report. But, more importantly, and bad news for the new world order plans, no one seems to care about the ISIS show. Americans everywhere have finally given up on the ISIS show. They are immune to fear, and government uses ‘fear’ to push their agendas. Without the effectiveness of fear the new world order plans are arguably in severe jeopardy.
What we are seeing now is the CIA pushing their staged reports through mainstream media (particularly CNN), each ISIS script is intended to keep ISIS going – that is, prolong the existence of ISIS.
Paradigm Shift and the Saying Goodbye to the NWO
Americans everywhere and people all around the world should be seeing the glass half full, because it is half full. The new world order really is dying out, but it is dying out slowly. It’s dying out slowly because there are more of us than there are of them. It’s dying out because people have had enough. It’s dying out because people are using the power of the Internet to look things up and they are confirming the truth about who we are and our political world. They are finding out that government ONLY operates via “conspiracy”. They are realizing that conspiracy is the norm not some special category which needs special consideration. This global realization is part of the paradigm shift we are all experiencing.
This global paradigm shift does not, however, prevent the control system from continuing their attempt to march toward a new world order of global tyranny. Nothing will stop this control system except the expiration date they are all on now. Everything that they are doing will expire at some point. Soldiers who are part of the system will all have to make a moral decision to either follow illegal orders or to follow their conscience. There are too many factors contributing to the slow death of the new world order to mention here. Their death is real and we should keep focused on this slow process in order to remind ourselves to keep fighting the good fight and that everything we do to make others more aware is paying off.
Here’s to a dying system.
Bernie is a revolutionary writer with a background in medicine, psychology, and information technology. He has written numerous articles over the years about freedom, government corruption and conspiracies, and solutions. A former host of the 9/11 Freefall radio show, Bernie is also the creator of the Truth and Art TV project where he shares articles and videos about issues that raise our consciousness and offer solutions to our current problems. His efforts are designed to encourage others to joyfully stand for truth, to expose government tactics of propaganda, fear and deception, and to address the psychology of dealing with the rising new world order. He is also a former U.S. Marine who believes it is our duty to stand for and defend the U.S. Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic. A peace activist, he believes information and awareness is the first step toward being free from enslavement from the globalist control system which now threatens humanity. He believes love conquers all fear and it is up to each and every one of us to manifest the solutions and the change that you want to see in this world, because doing this is the very thing that will ensure victory and restoration of the human race from the rising global enslavement system, and will offer hope to future generations.
by PAUL JOSEPH WATSON
Police brutality targeting blacks will not subside until this becomes part of the national conversation
Despite the revelation that half of the officers charged in the death of Freddie Gray – the incident that led to the Baltimore riots – are black, the narrative that black people are being disproportionately and unfairly targeted by predominantly white police officers and a racist criminal justice system in the United States continues to dominate.
This has led to the growth of a divisive movement – ‘Black Lives Matter’ – which has only served to further polarize America down racial lines, obsessing on skin color and invoking white guilt, while ignoring the true causes of and solutions to police brutality.
Until the following facts become part of the conversation, we’re never going to see a real reduction in the number of violent confrontations involving black people and police officers. But the mainstream media, political leaders and white people in general are afraid to even mention these facts for fear of being labeled racist.
I’m not here to win any popularity contests. I genuinely care about less black people and less police officers dying in the streets. So I’m going to give it to you straight.
Black people in the United States are more likely to be victims of violent confrontations with police officers than whites because they commit more violent crimes than whites per capita.
– FACT: Despite making up just 13% of the population, blacks commit around half of homicides in the United States. DOJ statistics show that between 1980 and 2008, blacks committed 52% of homicides, compared to 45% of homicides committed by whites.
More up to date FBI statistics tell a similar story. In 2013, black criminals carried out 38% of murders, compared to 31.1% for whites, again despite the fact that there are five times more white people in the U.S.
– FACT: From 2011 to 2013, 38.5 per cent of people arrested for murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault were black. This figure is three times higher than the 13% black population figure. When you account for the fact that black males aged 15-34, who account for around 3% of the population, are responsible for the vast majority of these crimes, the figures are even more staggering.
– FACT: Despite the fact that black people commit an equal or greater number of violent crimes than whites, whites are almost TWICE as likely to be killed by police officers.
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control, between 1999 and 2011, 2,151 whites died as a result of being shot by police compared to 1,130 blacks.
Critics argue that black people are overrepresented in these figures because they only represent 13% of the population, but they are underrepresented if you factor in violent crime offenders. In other words, you would expect the number of blacks and whites killed by police to be roughly equal given that they commit a roughly equal number of violent crimes, but that’s not the case. Whites are nearly 100% more likely to be victims.
And what about black on white violence in general?
– FACT: Despite being outnumbered by whites five to one, blacks commit eight times more crimes against whites than vice-versa, according to FBI statistics from 2007. A black male is 40 times as likely to assault a white person as the reverse. These figures also show that interracial rape is almost exclusively black on white.
“Even allowing for the existence of discrimination in the criminal justice system, the higher rates of crime among black Americans cannot be denied,” wrote James Q. Wilson and Richard Herrnstein in their widely cited 1985 study, “Crime and Human Nature.” “Every study of crime using official data shows blacks to be overrepresented among persons arrested, convicted, and imprisoned for street crimes.”
It’s clear that the greater propensity for black people to commit violent crimes is a driving factor as to why blacks are becoming involved in more violent confrontations with police than their 13% population figure suggests they should be. If the 911 calls are coming from black areas and are related to black people committing violent crimes, then of course black people are more likely to be involved in violent confrontations with cops.
Does that justify police brutality in cases such as Freddie Gray, Walter Scott or Eric Garner? No. But it does demolish the ‘Black Lives Matter’ narrative that the general trend of black people being victims of violent encounters with police is solely down to the fact that cops are racist towards black people. Racism is a factor, but the statistics clearly show that it’s by no means the only factor, and some would argue not even the dominant factor.
But aren’t all these statistics undermined by the fact that black people are unfairly targeted and framed for crimes by police officers in the first place? Don’t higher arrest and conviction rates of blacks merely prove that police are racist? This argument is debunked by looking at the proportion of offenders identified – not by police – but by victims – as black. The National Crime Victimization Survey shows that the number of blacks arrested generally correlates with the number of offenders identified as black by victims.
Studies suggest that the reasons behind blacks being more likely to commit violent crimes are the dual issues of poverty (which exacerbates family breakdown) and a sub-culture amongst the black community that is tolerant of and glamorizes crime and violence. In the aftermath of the Ferguson and Baltimore riots, we saw the white metropolitan liberal media further legitimize this violence by openly justifying and even endorsing violent unrest that targeted mainly black-owned businesses.
This is true racism – by encouraging blacks to loot and riot, the white liberal media is helping to keep black communities in a cycle of destructive behavior that will lead to more police brutality targeted against black people.
Police brutality is a huge problem within the United States, and anyone that denies that fact is a part of the problem. But until we acknowledge and address the equally important issue of violent criminality within the black community, and until that becomes part of the national conversation, the issue is never going to be resolved.
And by failing to make these facts part of the conversation, black political leaders, protest organizers, and the white liberal media is complicit in perpetuating the chain reaction of violence that makes more police brutality against black people an inevitable outcome.
New Eastern Outlook
by Vladimir Odintsov
Last decades have been marked by countless Washington’s efforts to impose its idea of democracy on the world. This trend has manifested itself in a wave of “color revolutions” and the active support of various non-governmental organizations that are designed to promote “the values of American-style democracy.”
However, there are cases when the export of “democracy” cannot be achieved by non-violent means, that’s where US intelligence services step in with a wide variety of covert operations being carried out all across the world. Should they fail, the White House will be quick to use of its so-called “coalition” that would eagerly bomb any country back to the Stone Age with total disregard for international norms and institutions. One could easily recall the examples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, the wave of “Arab Spring”revolutions and the Balkanization of Eastern Europe. In all those cases Washington is hiding behind its favorite excuse – the doctrine that was proclaimed by Harry Truman in the US Congress in March 1947, that constitutes “US support to free people who are resisting the command of armed minorities or the external pressure.” But back then it all came to countering communist influence that was reflected later in the beginning of the “Cold War”, but now the White House is desperate to apply this very “external pressure” all across the world.
But despite all these efforts, recent years have highlighted a growing opposition movement on different continents that is reinforced by the spread of anti-American sentiments. The reasons are a plenty, but the most serious among them is the widespread understanding that the “American-style democracy” that is being pushed down the throats of the people around the globe can not be regarded as a role model, since even the population of the United States doesn’t speak highly of it.
For instance, a growing number of American and Western media has been reporting a staggering level of violence on the part of law enforcement agencies in America that overshadows any other industrialized country in the whole world. In Germany, in the period of 2013-2014 police officers killed eight people, Canada is bit more dangerous place where police is killing up to ten people each year. However, in 2014 alone in the US city of Pasco, with a population of 68 thousand people, police officers have murdered more people than their colleagues in the whole United Kingdom in the last three years. It’s clear that Washington has unleashed a war against its own population. Frequently those crimes are being recorded, but US authorities refrain from reporting on them, most most often than not they are being mentioned briefly in the news reports. This March alone US police murdered 115 Americans, which is more than three individuals a day! It is more than the entire British police killed since 1900. The overwhelming majority of the victims is African-American, while the residents of California, Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio are much more inclined to fall victims of this “democratic” police, although this problem is now a national one. In particular, according to the US Department of Justice, in the last 8 years, only the Philadelphia police opened fire on local residents more than 400 times, 80% of those targeted by police officers were black.
Racial tensions in the US remain rather strong which often leads to institutionalized racism. This fact has been highlighted by an investigative report of The Washington Post that was examining the actions of Ferguson police after the death of Michael Brown, noting that, despite the intervention of the State of Missouri and the federal authorities, the local police still continue to openly adhere to discriminatory policies, which sounds truly alarming.
As a result, an entire generation of African Americans has been victimized by racial policies. If you are born black in the United States, then your chances of dying from a gun wound is 20 times higher than if you were white. Hence,there’s wonder that US cities are regularly shaken by massive waves of protests against police officers killing unarmed black men. .
Such atrocities against civilians occur not only in the US, they are pretty commonplace in countries that are occupied by the US military “in the name of promoting American-style democracy”. The last 14 years of ongoing US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, have been keeping the international media busy reporting on US military patrols shooting civilians, massive civilian casualties during US military raids, when people are massacred in their home, and finally collateral civilian deaths that were cause by an “unsuccessful” US drone attack
There’s no surprise that the unanimous opinion of the international community is that the United States officials are not only responsible for the violence on their home soil, but for massive shootings of civilians from Latin America to the Middle East. In 2014, the Gallup Institute in partnership with WIN has published a report on the basis of sociological researches in 65 countries, which states that 24% of world’s population perceive the US as the greatest threat to the planet. Which goes in tune with the conclusions of yet another Gallup research that was conducted this March in the 50 states of the US, which showed that 18% of respondents named the government and its ongoing “democratic” policy in the United States a significant problem, while putting other problems such as terrorism, unemployment, health care, the decline of family values on the background.
So should we promote this “American-style democracy” and is it of any use to anyone?
Vladimir Odintsov, political commentator, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
The New American
by Joe Wolverton, II, J.D.
“We shall extend the Persian territory as far as God’s heaven reaches. The sun will then shine on no land beyond our borders.”
— Herodotus, Histories, Book 7
An article published on April 24 in the Wall Street Journal carried the following subtitle: “Over the past year, special-operations forces have landed in 81 countries, mostly to train local troops to fight so Americans don’t have to.”
But if Americans don’t have to be, then why are they in so many countries? Surely this is not necessary for defending the United States of America — the purpose of the U.S. military.
It has been observed that the rise of the American empire is inversely proportional to the decline of the American republic. And such has been the trajectory of the republics of the past. But unlike Rome, the various Greek confederacies, and other historic republics, the American republic cum empire has innumerable means at its disposal to distribute its military might throughout the entirety of the globe.
The Wall Street Journal piece highlights one of the (momentarily) most popular methods of keeping the U.S. armed forces involved in “81 countries:” the deployment of special operations/forces troops, A.K.A. “commandos.” Here’s the Journal’s nearly poetical encomium of the U.S. special operations activities around the world:
These days, the sun never sets on America’s special-operations forces. Over the past year, they have landed in 81 countries, most of them training local commandos to fight so American troops don’t have to. From Honduras to Mongolia, Estonia to Djibouti, U.S. special operators teach local soldiers diplomatic skills to shield their countries against extremist ideologies, as well as combat skills to fight militants who break through.
President Barack Obama, as part of his plan to shrink U.S. reliance on traditional warfare, has promised to piece together a web of such alliances from South Asia to the Sahel. Faced with mobile enemies working independently of foreign governments, the U.S. military has scattered small, nimble teams in many places, rather than just maintaining large forces in a few.
When combined with President Obama’s unwavering (despite recent admissions of “accidental” killing of innocent Westerners) commitment to the drone war (including the much maligned “signature strikes”), the American empire’s growth trajectory is long and without recognizable end.
Almost exactly three years ago, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) published and promoted a plan crafted by U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Raymond T. Odierno that reads like a blueprint of the multinational military constructed under his and Barack Obama’s watch.
The general’s idea (one surely shared by the CFR that served as his bullhorn) was to transform the U.S. military into an international force, one capable of conducting numerous combat operations throughout the globe. In fact, in light of the Wall Street Journal’s recent report, it seems Odierno’s plan is being carried out with military precision.
A central plank of General Odierno’s platform is the need to use the Army to solve complex international conflicts. Again, these conflicts and the solutions to them are made more complex by the fact that there is not a single syllable in the Constitution that grants the president or Congress the authority to deploy American armed forces to work out the world’s difficult dilemmas.
On this point, regarding the rules to govern the creation and governing of a federal army, the Constitution says very little. In Article I, Section 8, Congress is authorized to “raise and support Armies” and to “make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces.” That’s it. That paucity of information has been magnified by the Council on Foreign Relations and their members in positions of power to include the use of the Army in ways and means that would seem unimaginable even to the most globally minded and hawkish of our Founding Fathers.
One of the unconstitutional missions advocated by Odierno and the CFR that is highlighted in Journal piece is the use of the U.S. Army as “a critical guarantor of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”
This echoes the pronouncement made by his Commander-in-Chief in Australia in 2011:
This is the future we seek for the Asia-Pacific — security, prosperity and dignity for all. That’s what we stand for. That’s who we are. That’s the future we will pursue in partnership with allies and friends and with every element of American power.
That is to say, General Odierno and President Obama believe that deterring aggression against our allies in Asia and the Pacific trumps any constitutional stricture on the appropriate use of the Army. There is nothing it seems that will stand in the way of our Army being placed at the disposal of foreign princes and presidents, provided they appreciate their resulting status as satraps of the American Emperor whose empire extends from pole to pole.
There are other provinces of the emerging American pancontinental presence accounted for in the Odierno/CFR plan. “The posture of the U.S. military in the Middle East is critical to maintaining regional stability there,” writes Odierno, again without any noticeable sense of irony.
Is the general privy to some reports of stability in the Middle East kept secret from the rest of us? There is no end to the media’s reminders of the instability in the Middle East. In fact, it is this very unsettled foundation upon which the need for ongoing American military presence there is built, particularly, as the Wall Street Journal reminds us, in Yemen and the Arab peninsula.
In other words, the Middle East is stable because of the Army, the Middle East will remain stable only so long as the Army remains on permanent patrol, and if we were to completely abandon our posts, the region would devolve into outright — instability. Thus is the quality of the reasoning demonstrated by those with command and control of the armed forces of the United States.
One geographic area of U.S. military involvement highlighted by the Wall Street Journal not specifically mentioned by Odierno and the CFR is Africa. “The three-week military exercises in Chad, which ended last month, are a microcosm of the U.S. strategy. The annual event started small a decade ago, and has grown to include 1,300 troops, with special-operations contingents from 18 Western nations coaching commandos from 10 African countries,” the Journal reports.
And the combat commitment to Africa is expansive:
Scores of Nigerian Special Boat Service commandos, who have trained with U.S. Navy SEALs, were in Chad to receive tactical advice from British instructors: How to set up an ambush, how to drag a wounded comrade out of danger and how to move through the sparse Sahelian forests.
At many points over the past six years, the U.S., Chad, Niger and others have criticized Nigeria for using brutal tactics against civilians who might otherwise help them flush out militants.
The Nigerian response to Boko Haram didn’t work effectively and “actually in some places made it worse,” Gen. David Rodriguez, commander of Africa Command, told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., in January. The U.S. and its allies hope the latest training will help the Nigerians turn the tide.
One U.S. special operations soldier is quoted in the Journal piece explaining the American military’s motivation this way, “A secure and stable Chad is one far less susceptible to Boko Haram and other insurgent influences.”
Lest there remain any doubt as to America’s resolve to make the world more “secure and stable,” General Odierno wants our nation’s enemies (foreign and domestic) to understand that we are not afraid to “compel capitulation.” Should those “potential adversaries” be American, moreover, Odierno promises that the Army will “be ready to decisively achieve American ends, whatever they may be.”
Odierno declares, echoing the special operations doctor, that the American armed forces will be deployed to demonstrate “our country’s commitment to global security.”
Sadly, Americans know this too well. There are rows and rows of white headstones, thousands of flag-draped coffins, and untold numbers of psychologically traumatized soldiers testifying to the seriousness of that commitment.
The Economic Collapse
by Michael Snyder
Warren Buffett believes “that bonds are very overvalued“, and a recent survey of fund managers found that 80 percent of them are convinced that bonds have become “badly overvalued“. The most famous bond expert on the planet, Bill Gross, recently confessed that he has a sense that the 35 year bull market in bonds is “ending” and he admitted that he is feeling “great unrest”. Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller has added a new chapter to his bestselling book in which he argues that bond prices are “irrationally high”. The global bond bubble has ballooned to more than 76 trillion dollars, and interest rates have never been lower in modern history. In fact, 25 percent of all government bonds in Europe actually have a negative rate of return at this point. There is literally nowhere for the bond market to go except for the other direction, and when this bull market turns into a bear it will create chaos and financial devastation all over the planet.
In a recent piece entitled “A Sense Of Ending“, bond guru Bill Gross admitted that the 35 year bull market in bonds that has made him and those that have invested with him so wealthy is now coming to an end…
Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, among others warn investors that our 35 year investment supercycle may be exhausted. They don’t necessarily counsel heading for the hills, or liquidating assets for cash, but they do speak to low future returns and the increasingly fat tail possibilities of a “bang” at some future date. To them, (and myself) the current bull market is not 35 years old, but twice that in human terms. Surely they and other gurus are looking through their research papers to help predict future financial “obits”, although uncertain of the announcement date. Savor this Bull market moment, they seem to be saying in unison. It will not come again for any of us; unrest lies ahead and low asset returns. Perhaps great unrest, if there is a bubble popping.
And the way that he ended his piece sounds rather ominous…
I wish to still be active in say 2020 to see how this ends. As it is, in 2015, I merely have a sense of an ending, a secular bull market ending with a whimper, not a bang. But if so, like death, only the timing is in doubt. Because of this sense, however, I have unrest, increasingly a great unrest. You should as well.
Bill Gross is someone that knows what he is talking about. I would consider his words very carefully.
Another renowned financial expert, Yale professor Robert Shiller, warned us about the stock bubble in 2000 and about the real estate bubble in 2005. Now, he is warning about the danger posed by this bond bubble…
In the first edition of his landmark book “Irrational Exuberance,” published in 2000, the Yale professor of economics and 2013 Nobel Laureate presciently warned that stocks looked especially expensive. In the second edition, published in 2005 shortly before the real estate bubble crashed, he added a chapter about real estate valuations. And in the new edition, due out later this month, Shiller adds a fresh chapter called “The Bond Market in Historical Perspective,” in which he worries that bond prices might be irrationally high.
For years, ultra-low interest rates have enabled governments around the world to go on a debt binge unlike anything the world has ever seen. Showing very little restraint since the last financial crisis, they have piled up debts that are exceedingly dangerous. If interest rates were to return to historical norms, it would instantly create the greatest government debt crisis in history.
A recent letter from IceCap Asset Management summarized where we basically stand today…
1) governments are unable to eliminate deficits
2) global government debt is increasing exponentially
3) 0% interest rates are allowing governments to borrow more to pay off old loans and fund deficits
4) Global growth is declining despite money printing and bailouts And, we’ve saved the latest and greatest fact for last: as stunning as 0% interest rates sound, the mathematically-challenged-fantasyland called Europe has just one upped everyone by introducing NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES.
As of writing, over 25% of all bonds issued by European governments has a guaranteed negative return for investors.
Germany can borrow money for 5 years at an interest rate of NEGATIVE 0.10%. Yes, instead of Germany paying you interest when you lend them money, you have to pay them interest.
These same negative interest rate conditions exist across many of the Eurozone countries, as well as Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland.
Negative interest rates are by nature irrational.
Why in the world would you pay someone to borrow money from you?
It doesn’t make any sense at all, and this irrational state of affairs will not last for too much longer.
At some point, investors are going to come to the realization that the 35 year bull market for bonds is finished, and then there will be a massive rush for the exits. This rush for the exits will be unlike anything the bond market has ever seen before. Robert Wenzel of the Economic Policy Journal says that this coming rush for the exits will set off a “death spiral”…
Anyone who holds the view that the Fed will not soon raise interest rates,and soon, fails to understand the nature of the developing crisis. It will be led by a collapse of the bond market.
Market forces, somewhat misleadingly called bond-vigilantes, will lead the charge.
I am not as bearish in the short-term on the stock market. The equity markets will be volatile because of the climb in rates and look scary at times but the death spiral will be in the bond market.
As this death spiral accelerates, we are going to see global interest rates rise dramatically. And considering the fact that more than 400 trillion dollars in derivatives are directly tied to interest rates, that is a very scary thing.
And in case you are wondering, the stock market will be deeply affected by all of this as well. I believe that we are going to witness a stock market crash even greater than what we experienced in 2008, and other experts are projecting similar things. For example, just consider what Marc Faber recently told CNBC…
“For the last two years, I’ve been thinking that U.S. stocks are due for a correction,” Faber said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “But I always say a bubble is a bubble, and if there’s no correction, the market will go up, and one day it will go down, big time.”
“The market is in a position where it’s not just going to be a 10 percent correction. Maybe it first goes up a bit further, but when it comes, it will be 30 percent or 40 percent minimum!” Faber asserted.
Where we are right now is at the end of the party. There are some that want to keep on dancing to the music for as long as possible, but most can see that things are winding down and people are starting to head for the exits.
The irrational global financial bubble that investors have been enjoying for the past few years has stretched on far longer than it should have. But that is the way irrational bubbles work – they just keep going even when everyone can see that they have become absolutely absurd. However, eventually something always comes along and bursts them, and once that happens markets can crash very, very rapidly.
Paul Craig Roberts
by Paul Craig Roberts
Just as Karl Marx claimed that History had chosen the proletariat, neoconservatives claim that History has chosen America. Just as the Nazis proclaimed “Deutschland uber alles,” neoconservatives proclaim “America uber alles.” In September 2013 President Obama actually stood before the United Nations and declared, “I believe America is exceptional.”
Germany’s political leaders and those in Great Britain, France, and throughout Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan also believe that America is exceptional, which means better than they are. That’s why these countries are Washington’s vassals. They accept their inferiority to the Exceptional Country — the USA — and follow its leadership.
It is unlikely that the Chinese think that a handful of White People are exceptional in anything except their diminutive numbers. The populations of Asia, Africa, and South America dwarf those that comprise Washington’s Empire.
Neither do the Russians believe that the US is exceptional. Putin’s response to Obama’s claim of American superiority was: “God created us equal.” Putin added: “It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation.”
If all countries are exceptional, the word loses its meaning. If America is exceptional, it means others are inferior for lacking this designation. Inferiors have less rights and can be bullied into submission or bombed into oblivion.
The Exceptional Country is above all the others and, therefore, doesn’t have to be concerned about how it treats them. Obviously, Americans and their vassals think America is exceptional as the millions of people murdered, maimed, and dislocated by Washington’s wars in eight countries in the 21st century has not resulted in condemnation of Washington. Merkel, Hollande, Cameron and the puppets in Canada, Australia, and Japan still suck up, holding tight to Washington.
Instead, Russia and Iran, countries that, unlike the US, are not militarily aggressive, are portrayed in the White People’s Media as threats and are condemned.
The White Media claims, and has claimed since February 2014, that there are Russian tanks and troops in Ukraine. Putin has pointed out that if this indeed was the case, Kiev and Western Ukraine would have fallen to the Russian invasion early last year. Kiev has been unable to defeat the small breakaway republics in eastern and southern Ukraine and would stand no chance against the Russian military.
Recently a brave news organization made fun of the White Media’s claim that Russian tanks have been pouring into Ukraine for 14 months. The parody pictured Ukraine at a standstill. All traffic on all roads and residential streets is blocked by Russian tanks. All parking places, including sidewalks and people’s front and rear gardens have tanks piled upon tanks. The entire country is immobilized in gridlock.
Although a few have fun making fun of the gullible people who believe the White Media, the situation is nevertheless serious as it concerns life on planet Earth.
There is little sign that Washington and its vassals care about life on Earth. Recently, the largest political group in the European Parliament–the European People’s Party–expressed a cavalier opinion about life on Earth. We know this, because, if we can trust Euractive, an online EU news source, the majority EU party believes that declaring the EU’s readiness for nuclear war is one of the best steps to deter Russia from further aggression. The aggression to be stopped by Europe’s declaration of its readiness for armageddon is the alleged Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the “further aggression” is Putin’s alleged intention of reestablishing the Soviet Empire.
It must be disappointing to the Russian government to see that leaders of the European Union prefer to endorse nuclear war than to challenge Washington’s propaganda.
When I read that the governing party in the European Parliament thought non-existent aggression had to be stopped by a declaration of readiness for nuclear war, I realized that money could buy any and every thing, even the life of the planet. The European People’s Party was speaking on behalf of Washington’s propaganda, not on behalf of Europe. Europe’s nuclear war with Russia would end instantly with the destruction of every European capital.
The crazed vice-president of the European People’s Party, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski revealed who the real aggressor is when he declared: “Time of talk and persuasion with Russia is over. Now it’s time for a tough policy.”
Clearly, the European Parliament is a great danger to life on the planet. Is it realistic to think that Russia will allow herself to become a concubine of Washington?
Watts Up With That
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 5 months
Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – still unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the current weak cycle – shows a new record length for the Pause: 18 years 5 months.
The result, as always, comes with a warning that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño may come through after a lag of four or five months. If, on the other hand, la Niña conditions begin to cool the oceans in time, there could be a lengthening of the Pause just in time for the Paris world-government summit in December 2015.
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 5 months since December 1996.
The hiatus period of 18 years 5 months, or 221 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.
The divergence between the models’ predictions in 1990 (Fig. 2) and 2005 (Fig. 3), on the one hand, and the observed outturn, on the other, also continues to widen.
Figure 2. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), for the 303 months January 1990 to March 2015 (orange region and red trend line), vs. observed anomalies (dark blue) and trend (bright blue) at less than 1.4 K/century equivalent, taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH v. 5.6 satellite monthly mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.
Figure 3. Predicted temperature change, January 2005 to March 2015, at a rate equivalent to 1.7 [1.0, 2.3] Cº/century (orange zone with thick red best-estimate trend line), compared with the near-zero observed anomalies (dark blue) and real-world trend (bright blue), taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH v. 5.6 satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.
The Technical Note explains the sources of the IPCC’s predictions in 1990 and in 2005, and also demonstrates that that according to the ARGO bathythermograph data the oceans are warming at a rate equivalent to less than a quarter of a Celsius degree per century. There are also details of the long-awaited beta-test version 6.0 of the University of Alabama at Huntsville’s satellite lower-troposphere dataset, which now shows a pause very nearly as long as the RSS dataset. However, the data are not yet in a form compatible with the earlier version, so v. 6 will not be used here until the beta testing is complete.
Key facts about global temperature
Ø The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 221 months from December 1996 to April 2015 – more than half the 436-month satellite record.
Ø The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us.
Ø Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 Cº per century.
Ø The fastest warming rate lasting 15 years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century.
Ø In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of 1.7 Cº/century.
Ø The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 Cº per century – half of what the IPCC had then predicted.
Ø Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº warming to 2100.
Ø The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than 15 years that has been measured since 1950.
Ø The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950.
Ø The oceans, according to the 3600+ ARGO bathythermograph buoys, are warming at a rate equivalent to just 0.02 Cº per decade, or 0.23 Cº per century.
Ø Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that.
Our latest topical graph shows the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean lower-troposphere dataset for as far back as it is possible to go and still find a zero trend. The start-date is not “cherry-picked” so as to coincide with the temperature spike caused by the 1998 el Niño. Instead, it is calculated so as to find the longest period with a zero trend.
The satellite datasets are arguably less unreliable than other datasets in that they show the 1998 Great El Niño more clearly than all other datasets. The Great el Niño, like its two predecessors in the past 300 years, caused widespread global coral bleaching, providing an independent verification that the satellite datasets are better able to capture such fluctuations without artificially filtering them out than other datasets.
Terrestrial temperatures are measured by thermometers. Thermometers correctly sited in rural areas away from manmade heat sources show warming rates below those that are published. The satellite datasets are based on reference measurements made by the most accurate thermometers available – platinum resistance thermometers, which provide an independent verification of the temperature measurements by checking via spaceward mirrors the known temperature of the cosmic background radiation, which is 1% of the freezing point of water, or just 2.73 degrees above absolute zero. It was by measuring minuscule variations in the cosmic background radiation that the NASA anisotropy probe determined the age of the Universe: 13.82 billion years.
The RSS graph (Fig. 1) is accurate. The data are lifted monthly straight from the RSS website. A computer algorithm reads them down from the text file, takes their mean and plots them automatically using an advanced routine that automatically adjusts the aspect ratio of the data window at both axes so as to show the data at maximum scale, for clarity.
The latest monthly data point is visually inspected to ensure that it has been correctly positioned. The light blue trend line plotted across the dark blue spline-curve that shows the actual data is determined by the method of least-squares linear regression, which calculates the y-intercept and slope of the line.
The IPCC and most other agencies use linear regression to determine global temperature trends. Professor Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia recommends it in one of the Climategate emails. The method is appropriate because global temperature records exhibit little auto-regression, since summer temperatures in one hemisphere are compensated by winter in the other. Therefore, an AR(n) model generates results little different from a least-squares trend.
Dr Stephen Farish, Professor of Epidemiological Statistics at the University of Melbourne, kindly verified the reliability of the algorithm that determines the trend on the graph and the correlation coefficient, which is very low because, though the data are highly variable, the trend is flat.
RSS itself is now taking a serious interest in the length of the Great Pause. Dr Carl Mears, the senior research scientist at RSS, discusses it at remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures.
Dr Mears’ results are summarized in Fig. T1:
Figure T1. Output of 33 IPCC models (turquoise) compared with measured RSS global temperature change (black), 1979-2014. The transient coolings caused by the volcanic eruptions of Chichón (1983) and Pinatubo (1991) are shown, as is the spike in warming caused by the great el Niño of 1998.
Dr Mears writes:
“The denialists like to assume that the cause for the model/observation discrepancy is some kind of problem with the fundamental model physics, and they pooh-pooh any other sort of explanation. This leads them to conclude, very likely erroneously, that the long-term sensitivity of the climate is much less than is currently thought.”
Dr Mears concedes the growing discrepancy between the RSS data and the models, but he alleges “cherry-picking” of the start-date for the global-temperature graph:
“Recently, a number of articles in the mainstream press have pointed out that there appears to have been little or no change in globally averaged temperature over the last two decades. Because of this, we are getting a lot of questions along the lines of ‘I saw this plot on a denialist web site. Is this really your data?’ While some of these reports have ‘cherry-picked’ their end points to make their evidence seem even stronger, there is not much doubt that the rate of warming since the late 1990s is less than that predicted by most of the IPCC AR5 simulations of historical climate. … The denialists really like to fit trends starting in 1997, so that the huge 1997-98 ENSO event is at the start of their time series, resulting in a linear fit with the smallest possible slope.”
In fact, the spike in temperatures caused by the Great el Niño of 1998 is largely offset in the linear-trend calculation by two factors: the not dissimilar spike of the 2010 el Niño, and the sheer length of the Great Pause itself.
Curiously, Dr Mears prefers the much-altered terrestrial datasets to the satellite datasets. However, over the entire length of the RSS and UAH series since 1979, the trends on the mean of the terrestrial datasets and on the mean of the satellite datasets are near-identical. Indeed, the UK Met Office uses the satellite record to calibrate its own terrestrial record.
The length of the Great Pause in global warming, significant though it now is, is of less importance than the ever-growing discrepancy between the temperature trends predicted by models and the far less exciting real-world temperature change that has been observed. It remains possible that el Nino-like conditions may prevail this year, reducing the length of the Great Pause. However, the discrepancy between prediction and observation continues to widen.
Sources of the IPCC projections in Figs. 2 and 3
IPCC’s First Assessment Report predicted that global temperature would rise by 1.0 [0.7, 1.5] Cº to 2025, equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] Cº per century. The executive summary asked, “How much confidence do we have in our predictions?” IPCC pointed out some uncertainties (clouds, oceans, etc.), but concluded:
“Nevertheless, … we have substantial confidence that models can predict at least the broad-scale features of climate change. … There are similarities between results from the coupled models using simple representations of the ocean and those using more sophisticated descriptions, and our understanding of such differences as do occur gives us some confidence in the results.”
That “substantial confidence” was substantial over-confidence. For the rate of global warming since 1990 – the most important of the “broad-scale features of climate change” that the models were supposed to predict – is now below half what the IPCC had then predicted.
In 1990, the IPCC said this:
“Based on current models we predict:
“under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3 Cº per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 Cº to 0.5 Cº per decade), this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1 Cº above the present value by 2025 and 3 Cº before the end of the next century. The rise will not be steady because of the influence of other factors” (p. xii).
Later, the IPCC said:
“The numbers given below are based on high-resolution models, scaled to be consistent with our best estimate of global mean warming of 1.8 Cº by 2030. For values consistent with other estimates of global temperature rise, the numbers below should be reduced by 30% for the low estimate or increased by 50% for the high estimate” (p. xxiv).
The orange region in Fig. 2 represents the IPCC’s less extreme medium-term Scenario-A estimate of near-term warming, i.e. 1.0 [0.7, 1.5] K by 2025, rather than its more extreme Scenario-A estimate, i.e. 1.8 [1.3, 3.7] K by 2030.
Some try to say the IPCC did not predict the straight-line global warming rate that is shown in Figs. 2-3. In fact, however, the IPCC’s predicted global warming over so short a term as the 25 years from 1990 to the present are little different from a straight line (Fig. T2).
Figure T2. Historical warming from 1850-1990, and predicted warming from 1990-2100 on the IPCC’s “business-as-usual” Scenario A (IPCC, 1990, p. xxii).
Because this difference between a straight line and the slight uptick in the warming rate the IPCC predicted over the period 1990-2025 is so small, one can look at it another way. To reach the 1 K central estimate of warming since 1990 by 2025, there would have to be twice as much warming in the next ten years as there was in the last 25 years. That is not likely.
Likewise, to reach 1.8 K by 2030, there would have to be four or five times as much warming in the next 15 years as there was in the last 25 years. That is still less likely.
But is the Pause perhaps caused by the fact that CO2 emissions have not been rising anything like as fast as the IPCC’s “business-as-usual” Scenario A prediction in 1990? No: CO2 emissions have risen rather above the Scenario-A prediction (Fig. T3).
Figure T3. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, etc., in 2012, from Le Quéré et al. (2014), plotted against the chart of “man-made carbon dioxide emissions”, in billions of tonnes of carbon per year, from IPCC (1990).
Plainly, therefore, CO2 emissions since 1990 have proven to be closer to Scenario A than to any other case, because for all the talk about CO2 emissions reduction the fact is that the rate of expansion of fossil-fuel burning in China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, etc., far outstrips the paltry reductions we have achieved in the West to date.
True, methane concentration has not risen as predicted in 1990 (Fig. T4), for methane emissions, though largely uncontrolled, are simply not rising as the models had predicted, and the predictions were extravagantly baseless.
The overall picture is clear. Scenario A is the emissions scenario from 1990 that is closest to the observed emissions outturn, and yet there has only been a third of a degree of global warming since 1990 – about half of what the IPCC had then predicted with what it called “substantial confidence”.
Figure T4. Methane concentration as predicted in four IPCC Assessment Reports, together with (in black) the observed outturn, which is running along the bottom of the least prediction. This graph appeared in the pre-final draft of IPCC (2013), but had mysteriously been deleted from the final, published version, inferentially because the IPCC did not want to display such a plain comparison between absurdly exaggerated predictions and unexciting reality.
To be precise, a quarter-century after 1990, the global-warming outturn to date – expressed as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies – is 0.35 Cº, equivalent to just 1.4 Cº/century, or a little below half of the central estimate of 0.70 Cº, equivalent to 2.8 Cº/century, that was predicted for Scenario A in IPCC (1990). The outturn is visibly well below even the least estimate.
In 1990, the IPCC’s central prediction of the near-term warming rate was higher by two-thirds than its prediction is today. Then it was 2.8 C/century equivalent. Now it is just 1.7 Cº equivalent – and, as Fig. T5 shows, even that is proving to be a substantial exaggeration.
Is the ocean warming?
One frequently-discussed explanation for the Great Pause is that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system has continued to accumulate heat at approximately the rate predicted by the models, but that in recent decades the heat has been removed from the atmosphere by the ocean and, since globally the near-surface strata show far less warming than the models had predicted, it is hypothesized that what is called the “missing heat” has traveled to the little-measured abyssal strata below 2000 m, whence it may emerge at some future date.
Actually, it is not known whether the ocean is warming: each of the 3600 automated ARGO bathythermograph buoys somehow has to cover 200,000 cubic kilometres of ocean – a 100,000-square-mile box more than 316 km square and 2 km deep. Plainly, the results on the basis of a resolution that sparse (which, as Willis Eschenbach puts it, is approximately the equivalent of trying to take a single temperature and salinity profile taken at a single point in Lake Superior less than once a year) are not going to be a lot better than guesswork.
Fortunately, a long-standing bug in the ARGO data delivery system has now been fixed, so I am able to get the monthly global mean ocean temperature data – though ARGO seems not to have updated the dataset since December 2014. However, that gives us 11 full years of data. Results are plotted in Fig. T5. The ocean warming, if ARGO is right, is equivalent to just 0.02 Cº decade–1, or 0.2 Cº century–1 equivalent.
Figure T5. The entire near-global ARGO 2 km ocean temperature dataset from January 2004 to December 2014 (black spline-curve), with the least-squares linear-regression trend calculated from the data by the author (green arrow).
Finally, though the ARGO buoys measure ocean temperature change directly, before publication NOAA craftily converts the temperature change into zettajoules of ocean heat content change, which make the change seem a whole lot larger.
The terrifying-sounding heat content change of 260 ZJ from 1970 to 2014 (Fig. T6) is equivalent to just 0.2 K/century of global warming. All those “Hiroshima bombs of heat” are a barely discernible pinprick. The ocean and its heat capacity are a lot bigger than some may realize.
Figure T6. Ocean heat content change, 1957-2013, in Zettajoules from NOAA’s NODC Ocean Climate Lab: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT, with the heat content values converted back to the ocean temperature changes in fractions of a Kelvin that were originally measured. NOAA’s conversion of the minuscule temperature change data to Zettajoules, combined with the exaggerated vertical aspect of the graph, has the effect of making a very small change in ocean temperature seem considerably more significant than it is.
Converting the ocean heat content change back to temperature change reveals an interesting discrepancy between NOAA’s data and that of the ARGO system. Over the period of ARGO data, from 2004-2014, the NOAA data imply that the oceans are warming at 0.05 Cº decade–1, equivalent to 0.5 Cº century–1, or rather more than double the rate shown by ARGO.
ARGO has the better-resolved dataset, but since the resolutions of all ocean datasets are very low one should treat all these results with caution. What one can say is that, on such evidence as these datasets are capable of providing, the difference between underlying warming rate of the ocean and that of the atmosphere is not statistically significant, suggesting that if the “missing heat” is hiding in the oceans it has magically found its way into the abyssal strata without managing to warm the upper strata on the way. On these data, too, there is no evidence of rapid or catastrophic ocean warming.
Furthermore, to date no empirical, theoretical or numerical method, complex or simple, has yet successfully specified mechanistically either how the heat generated by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas enrichment of the atmosphere has reached the deep ocean without much altering the heat content of the intervening near-surface strata or how the heat from the bottom of the ocean may eventually re-emerge to perturb the near-surface climate conditions that are relevant to land-based life on Earth.
Most ocean models used in performing coupled general-circulation model sensitivity runs simply cannot resolve most of the physical processes relevant for capturing heat uptake by the deep ocean. Ultimately, the second law of thermodynamics requires that any heat which may have accumulated in the deep ocean will dissipate via various diffusive processes. It is not plausible that any heat taken up by the deep ocean will suddenly warm the upper ocean and, via the upper ocean, the atmosphere.
If the “deep heat” explanation for the hiatus in global warming were correct (and it is merely one among dozens that have been offered), then the complex models have failed to account for it correctly: otherwise, the growing discrepancy between the predicted and observed atmospheric warming rates would not have become as significant as it has.
The UAH v. 6.0 dataset
The long-awaited new version of the UAH dataset is here at last. The headline change is that the warming trend has fallen from 0.14 to 0.11 C° per decade since 1979. The UAH and RSS datasets are now very close to one another, and there is a clear difference between the warming rates shown by the satellite and terrestrial datasets.
Roy Spencer’s website, drroyspencer.com, has an interesting explanation of the reasons for the change in the dataset. When I mentioned to him that the usual suspects would challenge the alterations that have been made to the dataset, he replied: “It is what it is.” In that one short sentence, true science is encapsulated.
Below, Fig. T7 shows the two versions of the UAH dataset superimposed on one another. Fig. T8 plots the differences between the two versions.
Fig. T7. The two UAH versions superimposed on one another.
Fig. T8. Difference between UAH v. 6 and v. 5.6.